UMUSE2: Why Trump can win the election - Swiss computer scientists have analysed the US Presidential election-campaign again

In the 2016 election campaign the prognosis and all digital channels betted on Hillary Clinton to win.  A group of Swiss computer scientists, analysing the public campaign on all US search and social media channels in September 2016 already claimed that Donald Trump was going to win.  In 2020 they show again, with new computer-based monitorings of the user behaviour in the US, that Donald Trump’s campaign is leading digitally with a five times bigger search volume than Joe Biden’s!  The analysis of the candidates tweets shows that Trump uses rather strong emotions like “fear” and “anger” whereas Biden’s tweets insist on moral values and critizise the actions of the Trump administration during the pandemic. On both campaign websites, Trump also “beats” Biden by communicating 6% closer to the interest of American citizens online.

Search volume analysis

Thanks to a new innovative technology, the project UMUSE2* identifies the number of search requests sent in the US to all search engines, social media and e-shops, with the names of the two candidates, namely “Donald Trump” and “Joe Biden”, but also with all the topics high on search.  Based on these numbers, Donald Trump has a significant lead over his rival. During the first two weeks in August 2020, Joe Biden's popularity has seen a short surge with the announcement of running mate Kamala Harris while the popularity of Donald Trump is decreasing only slowly since the beginning of June.  Big data shows that Internet users on all US channels are still significantly more interested in Trump than in his opponent, the democrat Biden...

Read more: media information of September 10th 2020

 

User Monitoring of the US elections 2016 (UMUSE)

Measuring online demand for candidates and topics of the Presidential Elections on the Web

The UMUSE-project aims to hit new ground for monitoring Users interest during eleven months (1st of January to 8th of November 2016) of Presidential Election campaigns in the United States. It has started to analyse by computer based content analysis the users search behaviour on various search engines and social networks. It also follows the public discussions in the US-Media. The UMUSE-project is systematically monitoring and collecting search patterns online for the US, UK, Canada and also worldwide. The project is based on preliminary analysis of former Presidential election campaigns going back to 2004 and 2008 elections. The project will show how issues and candidates evolve on time with regards of monitored Users interest and with respect to the media coverage. And it would like to emphasize the online user-perspective of the election campaign in addition to other, measurements and pollings. It is based on an independent, neutral, international scientific cooperation between University of Neuchâtel (Switzerland), Northwestern University (USA) in Boston, and IFAAR Institute in Berne (Switzerland).

The IFAAR institute receives a national research contract

The Swiss National Science Foundation has accepted a research project from IFAAR in the context of the „Science and Technology Cooperation Switzerland - Russia“ program. This is carried out together with the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) as well as the Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU).

IFAAR was mandated to manage the research project „Comparative e-governance between Russia and Switzerland – A systematic bilateral evaluation of eGovernment on national and regional level“. The goal of this scientific cooperation was to reveal differences and commonalities of e-government initiatives in both countries. The program analysed how well e-government initiatives of public administrations respond to the interest of citizens in Russia and in Switzerland. The idea of the project was to show differences and similarities as well as high potentials for improvement in each country. This unique international comparative e-government benchmarking project was ground-breaking for comparitive science in online-research on national and international levels. 

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